Showing posts with label dunning-kruger. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dunning-kruger. Show all posts

Thursday, May 7, 2015

4.37. The Sad and Sorrowful Tale of Aetherknight

You don't even know me!

Yeagermeister

This is a tale of woe, of inside jokes, mockery and profanity. You'll learn the value of a quality Richard Nixon impression, uttering the words "I SHOULD DRIVE THE SIEGE ENGINE." You'll feel the exhilaration telling a guild leader to fuck himself and his guild vault. You will come to appreciate the notion that some people are not meant to play World of Warcraft. And you will, from this day forth, see footwear as nothing more than a meme. But this is a tale of revelation and of self-awareness, so I warn you, dear reader, that these tales do not often have a happy ending. Our story begins as all poignant tales should: it begins with a dude falling off a horse.

Late into the evening of October 12th, 1947, a 24 year old pilot crashed to the ground without an aircraft in sight. A closed gate and a horse with bad eyes resulted in a mid-fence collision, catapulting the rider off. When the World War II vet hit the dirt, the force cracked two of his ribs. But rather than go directly to the local hospital, he dragged his busted insides to an out-of-town veterinarian, taping up Chuck's torso as best he could. Only two people were privy to the accident: Chuck's wife, Glennis, and a close friend, Jack. The secrecy was essential. History was at stake.

Two days later and in excruciating pain, Chuck suited up at the Muroc Desert Test Center, and climbed into an experimental XS-1 aircraft. Debilitating pain couldn't risk the mission, which is why he smuggled a broomstick handle onto the runway. Pulling it from his flight suit, Chuck fashioned the handle into a makeshift lever and used it to seal the hatch of the XS-1. And on October 14th, 1947, Captain Chuck E. Yeager took the XS-1 to an altitude of 45,000 ft, pushed the experimental aircraft to Mach 1.07, and became the first human to break the sound barrier. With two broken ribs.

Six years later, he more than doubled his previous record, reaching a speed of 1,600 miles/hour.

Chuck's a master with an aircraft because he's attuned to limits: how much pain he can endure, how much stress an aircraft can withstand, how insane an experiment might be. Being able to pinpoint a limit is necessary in order to push beyond it. It's how you turn good into great, forgettable into memorable, and a good ol' fashioned flight mission into aeronautical history. The first step to becoming "great" is be able to first recognize what's "good", so you have a line in the sand to push past. An expert knows when s/he's about to make a bad decision. But it's not enough to simply be an expert with your craft -- that's only half the game. You need to be attuned to your own limits.

---

One of the ways we can understand our limits is by turning to what we like. Gamers have preferences: in their mind, they know what's fun and what isn't. If they love cartoons, kitty cats, and inhuman levels of pink, you can expect them to enjoy Hello Kitty Island Adventure. But if they get an adrenalin rush from punching the skin clean off a demon, they may be more inclined to choose Diablo.

Preferences are knit very closely to limits: force a Diablo player to sit through Hello Kitty, and there's a very real possibility that they walk away in minutes -- they've had all they can handle. It's knowing and interpreting one's own limits that shape future decisions; it is the seed from which preferences grow. Hey, Diablo player, interested in Hello Kitty II? "No, thanks." There's no need to even attempt the experimental flight. They know their Hello Kitty limit, and it's already well into the red.

Preferences are established across a wide variety of attributes: we favor one visual style over another, enjoy some genres more than others, crank the game music or silence it, and care deeply/not at all about the story and characters. We have preferences on the platform (PC MASTER RACE UNITE!), and even prefer varying degrees of difficulty. If we crave a challenge, we'll dive directly into the molten hellfire of the hardest mode. If we prefer taking things slowly, we'll opt to take an easier route, ramping up the difficulty over time. At some point in our lives, we've set an internal marker for each feature, a slider on a ruler indicating 'safe' and 'not at all safe'. And as we walk the multitude of features in our mind, the slider extends far into the distance for the types of things we love, and shores up tightly for things we loathe.

Our preferences are nothing more than inverted views of our limits -- we tolerate the things we like much longer than we tolerate things we hate; it's how a handful of my guild enjoys playing Diablo, but have since moved to something else while I continue to grind up the Battle.net ladder. We all think Diablo is fun, but grinding is something they're unwilling to tolerate as much as a crazed lunatic like me..

So, if we are in agreement that our preferences are really just another way of looking at -- of understanding -- our own limits, then it is time to turn this story toward a paladin named Aetherknight, to see how well he understood his.

Aetherknight (as Grzzloc) lies dead as the 25-Man
finishes off Anu'barak,
Tournament of Champions

The Burning Man

As the summer of '09 bled into our darkened, flickering caves, a new recruit found his way into our roster. He called himself Aetherknight, and was fresh off of a guild named Immortals, looking to make a name for himself in DoD. Aetherknight's timing was good; he joined DoD right about the time that Cheeseus was mitigating drama with Divineseal. This plan succinctly demonstrated the DoD 2.0 strategy: if you can't solve your issues in progression, eventually, we'll replace you. We gave Divineseal the tools to fix his issues, and if he couldn't (or wouldn't), Aetherknight would be next in line.

Aether's first opportunity to strut his stuff came thanks to a simple misunderstanding. Word trickled down from Annihilation's Alt-25 that a "pally was sucking". I assumed the pally in question was Divinepants, leading me to direct Cheeseus in pulling Aetherknight off the bench. It wasn't until Aether had been signed and rotated in that the name of the paladin was finally confirmed. Lo and behold, Divineseal was innocent: the toon in question was named "Wes", played by none other than Señor Riskers.

"He should stick to DPS," Cheeseus typed into IM, "Riskers is a solid rogue."

"I'm a firm believer that some people do not do well in certain roles," I added. "Look at Ekasra. He busted his ass all through The Burning Crusade to try to be a half-decent healer, but just was always very sub-par. Wrath comes around, he switches to Warlock...boom. Top of the charts. Sometimes you have keep trying until you figure it out."

Aether's first runs with progression weren't awful, but they weren't exactly stellar, either. It takes time to acclimate to an new environment, new guild rules, new players. Cheeseus and I kept our eye on Aether and watched for that moment the paladin would hit his stride. He had June and July to adjust.

Instead of adjusting, he went missing.

Aetherknight made an annual pilgrimage to Burning Man every year, and '09 was no different. He gave me the heads-up preceding his week of uninhibited revelry. But when the week turned to two, which then turned to three and then four, I wondered if he would ever come back at all. By the time he showed his face again, Aether was no longer the new kid on the block, and other candidates stood squarely in his spot. Losing his place, Aether returned to the back of the line. His next opportunity would be much longer in wait.

To make a name for himself, Aetherknight turned to the various 10-Man groups to provide healing services. Joredin led a team that needed healing assistance, but once inside, Aetherknight's MO was mediocrity. They struggled. Aether's skills as a Holy Paladin only went so far when paired with a Disc Priest's shield-heavy heals. Joredin was kind, confiding with me behind closed doors; he chalked it up to the unfortunate pairing of heal types. It would've been nice to see Aether hit the drawing board, figure out what he needed to modify, in spec or in style, to synergize with Disc.

He did not.

---

On an otherwise unmemorable night, Aetherknight assisted Team Starflex in a 10-Man run of Ulduar. Jungard, now my melee officer, had more than enough hands-on experience to be leading his own team. Yet something inside the paladin compelled him to speak up during Flame Leviathan vehicle assignment.

"Fred, you can go in a cycle this round, I’ll drive Siege, let's get Randy in a Demolisher…"

"Actually, you should put me the siege engine."

Jungard, one of my more politically minded officers, remained respectful while questioning Aether. "OK? Any particular reason why?"

"I have the highest ilvl boots out of all of us."

One of the downsides of using something like Vent to communicate is that you aren't often aware of the snickers that go on behind your back. Nobody really presses their "key to talk" to let you know they're laughing at you. Aetherknight was oblivious to the meme taking root, a hyper-extended long /u/, muttered as if it came from a zombie bearing down on its cerebral dinner:

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOTS

By the time Jungard floated it back up to me, the meme was firmly established...as was the guild's opinion of Aetherknight.
Hanzo receives more fan mail from Aetherknight

No Hammer, No Nails

Aether's complaints exhausted me, because each time felt like the first time. Always projecting his failures onto other people, he failed to see his own issues, red flags that stared back at me from those emails.

His newest concern was how Blain was mistreating him, insulting him, making him feel unworthy and stupid. Blain didn't insult people, it wasn't his style. Others had claimed similar mistreatment. In all of those cases, reviewing the fine details always revealed a nugget of info, conveniently absent from the allegation.

Failing to heal with any notable significance, Aether turned to DPS, bringing a warlock named Grzzloc to our runs. And, as Blain is apt to do, called Aether out an his awful presentation of skill. Astronomical damage means little if you can't control it, and if bosses are consistently turning their attention to you, how can you expect to do exceptional damage if you're dead?

"I think the problem at hand," I typed back to Aetherknight, "is that you are suffering from the same problem that plagued Divineseal. He considered himself an expert player, and gave advice every chance a question popped up in guild chat. The problem was: he wasn't qualified to give advice because he was a bad player. And while he may have put effort into improving his play, he put no such effort into his attitude."

Explaining common sense to a person carries with it an implicit contract: once delivered, you must also provide instruction. By explaining right from wrong, you're proving a point. They don't get it. But if a leader can't provide a concrete solution, that leader has nobody to blame but themselves. "I told him to fix his shit, but he never wanted to!..." is not enough. It isn't a question of not wanting to fix what's broken. For most of DoD, it was often about stopping players from hammering nails with their bare hands.

Aetherknight had neither hammer nor nails.

---

I made my list as palpable as I could, and focused on limits...both in-game and in-mind.  Here’s how you’re going to solve this problem.
  1. Improve your DPS and survivability, plain and simple. Tweak your gear and spec. If you're dying too much, play more conservatively. Pick more defensive talents. 12th place with 100% uptime is better than you hitting 38k DPS, pulling aggro, and dying.
  2. Take responsibility for your deaths. I don't ever want to hear in Vent "I dunno what happened there" or "This doesn't make any sense." From now on, I want you to look at the combat log, identify what you died from, and own it. When you speak in Vent, say, "This here is what killed me. Will be sure to not let this happen again." Don't let Blain call you out. Call yourself out.
  3. When a conversation about DPS or survivability is carrying on in Vent, don't talk. Listen.
  4. Try some humility. If you see yourself as a beginner, the guild will be primed to give you more leeway when you make mistakes. But if you carry yourself as an expert (and continue to make mistakes), they'll consider you a pompous a-hole, and be less likely to forgive accidents.
I gave Aetherknight the same tools I gave Divineseal, but its effects only lasted a few short months. Aetherknight spent most of his time on the bench, throughout the remainder of 2010. Over time, he became that voice in the crowd, offering random opinions on things he wasn't qualified to give advice on. When he died due to his own negligence, he owned nothing, opting instead to stay silent. It was as if my email had been written in another language. But he was always quick to send an opinion my way:

"I thought you ran a civilized guild."

No hammer. No nails.

---

December 9th, 2010; two days after Cataclysm's launch. DoD bustled with activity. In Vent, players were chatting about everything new, mixing in-game discoveries with queries about the latest round of changes to DoD's governing ordinance. Aetherknight inserted himself into a conversation in progress; I stayed quiet to hear what revelation he had for us this evening.

"I don't know why you think this is going to change anything, progression will always play favorites to the officers' best buddies."

"I’m...pretty sure Hanzo just finished saying that the rotations are based on proven performance. You gain a spot by proving you are reliable and deliver consistent numbers that steadily improve."

"I've been steadily improving for the last year, but I'm not getting any spots. What I am getting is a lot of grief from Blain, which just proves my point. I shouldn't have to prove myself to anyone, and that's the problem with DoD."

Some of the vets began to question why Aetherknight was choosing to remain in DoD, or even continue playing WoW, if he was so unhappy -- questions he conveniently dodged. I popped open the guild panel, grabbed his name, and demoted his rank to "Janitor" -- a rank that swapped his speaking rights with a different perk: go to the donations tab in the guild vault and clean out all of the junk that players dump there. All actions have a consequence...especially the bad ones.

"I spent the last year trying to give you advice, Aether, but you're not getting it, so maybe it's time you took a breather and cleaned the junk out of the guild vault."

Aetherknight pushed the mic close. "Hey! I have a better idea, Hanzo, how about this? FUCK you...and FUCK your guild vault!"

The guild panel was already open, so it was easy to click the button.

Aetherknight has been removed from the guild.

Cheers filled both Vent and chat as the paladin took his leave. When Blain caught word of Aether's undoing, he rewarded me with 300 forum Karma, relieved to at last be rid of the paladin unable to learn, improve, or simply cope.

Some people are not meant to play World of Warcraft, but it isn't why you think. It's not because they're bad at healing, or bad at tanking, or bad at DPS. All of those things can be fixed with dedication and practice. WoW is about more than just healing, tanking and DPS, it's about interacting with other players, communicating with living, breathing people, and even that is something that can be taught. 

The saddest part of this story is not that Aetherknight was bad at WoW and bad at people. He was bad at limits. Somewhere, deep in that subconscious, his ruler had no slider to mark a threshold. He had no hope of ever pushing from "good" to "great", because Aetherknight had no means to identify what he could withstand...or what we could.

And that, dear reader, isn't anything you or I can hope to teach someone else.

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

3.29. Entropy

Mature aids a group of players from
DoD to defeat Keristrasza without gaining
more than two stacks of Biting Cold,
The Nexus

Too Lean a Mixture

Elites were making things difficult.

As originally designed, my newly promoted "cream of the crop" players had been guaranteed a spot in the weekly progression raid. The side-effect to this should be obvious: the more spots that were locked-down each week, the less flexibility I had to rotate lesser-ranked players (Raiders) through. My two-cycle raiding engine only ran at 100% efficiency if I maintained a healthy mixture of both Raiders and Elite. If the fuel-to-oil mix was too one-sided, eventually things would seize up. Part of what went along with this understanding of my need for a balanced ratio of Raiders-to-Elites was the hard truth: As I promoted more Elites, fewer Raiders would get in. Every promotion had to be thoughtful. What role was I locking down? What did the pool look like? Who would be squeezed out by this promotion, and would those floating Raiders be necessary to keep the engine humming at idle?

"There is no reason for Crasian to not be Elite" popped the message into my IM window. I sipped my coffee. We'd been over this already. I typed back to Cheeseus.

"I'm still not comfortable locking down all the melee spots."

Six melee is what we were taking to Ulduar. The Warriors Jungard and Abrinis were Elite. Sir Klocker still held the Old God rank, which carried with it no expectation to raid, but he and I had an understanding. He was raiding every week, the rank was for show. Cheeseus was the Raid Leader, so for obvious reasons, he would be in attendance every week. Bheer was our fifth and final locked-down melee spot, bringing Enhancement Shamanism to the raid. That left a single floating melee spot from week-to-week, an already oil-thick mixture. Promoting Crasian meant a full lock-down of melee, all gears being greased...with no fuel to drive the engine long-term. Promoting him meant no contingency plan when emergencies arose. Take only Elites week-to-week, and the Raiders will feel neglected and leave. No more Riskers. No more Bonechatters.

I stuck to my guns on Crasian's promotion. Cheeseus was annoyed. He stated the obvious, "Ensuring Elites raid every week is gimping us. What happens when we lock down all roles? New amazing players just get left behind?"

"Which is exactly why I can't promote them."

He pressed further.

"We have 1 elite tank, 1 gm tank, and 1 whatever rank Dalans is tank, yet we're able to rotate in Bretthew, while still knowing we have access to Dalans / Omaric, as we saw when Taba had that family emergency 2-4 weeks ago and let me know last minute. This is what Elites should be. Sign up for every raid, do their job professionally, sit out on occasion to allow new people the opportunity to run/get loot, but always at the end of the day, be available for the raid."

I pointed out the flaw in the his logic, "Sitting out on occasion is what the Raiders do," I replied, "that's the difference between a Raider and an Elite."

"No, the difference is that you choose when the Raiders sit out. When the Elites sit out, it's their choice. Sort of."

I got what he was trying to say. The question was how to make it work without making Elites feel like I was stripping them of their permanent spot. I was going to have to give it thought. I added it to my mental to-do list -- a list Cheeseus had become quite adept at piling things on to.

Mature hams it up for the camera with his
newly acquired Chef's Hat and title,
Dalaran

In Flux

When not struggling with what to do about looming Elite promotions that would lock out an entire slot of players, I had many other items on my list to keep me on my toes. Yogg-Saron, of course, was the primary target. Our speed-burn through Ulduar had ground to a dead halt at Yogg, as we transitioned back to our age-old plan of slowly picking away at the boss, baby-step by baby-step. I was also fielding changes in the roster. Ekasra, finally achieving a sense of accomplishment through his Warlock Nestonia, had decided to throw in the towel. He surprised me by this move, after having put so much energy into a Warlock and making a lasting, memorable contribution in Wrath. Alas, the journey has to end for every player at some point. Ekasra's exit was tough because his absence not only ate into the 25-Man roster, it was sure to affect The Eh Team as well. Cheeseus was certain to have a load of fun looking for a qualified replacement -- and with his rigid expectations on perfection, it would not come easily.

Another loss came in by way of Lix, a long-term Resto Druid who diligently filled the role of a Raider, rotating in and out week-to-week. Lix came to me one evening and confessed that she'd made the life-changing decision to join the Navy. I applauded her courage and nobility to serve her country, but would have preferred that she remained serving me. Damage dealers were a dime a dozen, but quality healers were always hard to come by; the loss of Lix would be another blow I'd have to take in stride.

Other fluctuations in the lineup continued to remind me of the Elite problem. Mcflurrie's schedule was changing and he came to me requesting a demotion, unable to maintain the consistency I asked of Elites. In an alternate dimension where Elites weren't required to be at every raid, but still enjoyed the luxury of taking a priority spot, this demotion could have been avoided. 

The Elite problem manifested in the other direction as well, as players lobbied for promotions...as was the case with Turtleman. I had grave reservations about him. He may have dominated the Mage DPS charts unequivocally during his tenure in DoD, but Turtleman had red flagged himself on numerous occasions -- the most recent offense being the cancellation of his signups mere hours before a raid. This was a behavior he'd beeen warned about; it was not representative of one who was striving for Elite. Still, he was one of the longest running guild members, and had never given me a moment of doubt when the loyalty of the guild was in question. Even in our darker days when the guild hemorrhaged away quality players, Turtleman remained steadfast in DoD. I took a risk with Turtle and gave him the promotion to Elite, with my gut screaming at me the entire time. Too many red flags. People don't change. This is a mistake. I get it, gut...I get it. I'll work with Turtleman just as I have with Ben. He is worth the effort.

When the dust settled, I was down a Lock, a Shaman, and a Druid, but managed to limp away with a locked-down ranged DPS. Bouncing back and forth between our queue of applications and WoW Lemmings, I was able to pick up a new Hunter named Cenadar, and a Paladin named Aetherknight, both of whom I knew little about, but that seemed like a good a start as any.

A start at staving off the entropy.

After juggling the problems of the fluctuating raid roster, pondering the conundrum of my Elite rank, and trying to remain focused on Yogg-Saron, I couldn't wait to see what was in store for me next.

Mature scores his 10,000th honorable kill while
Ben (via Fluffykitten) points out how behind
the curve he actually is,
Alterac Valley

Dunning-Kruger in Full Effect

Cheeseus brought it to my attention one morning, linking me to one of our World of Logs reports.

"This is where he does his best. Notice anything suspicious about it?"

I glanced at the logs, scanning down the list of healers' performances.

"It's subtle", he added.

Cheeseus was pointing me to the trash pre-Mimiron, a festive group of mechanical spider-like miniature tanks called Arachnopods which sprayed us with napalm while we struggled to mitigate the burning damage. Arachnopods had a clever gimmick: As they reached low health, they ejected their pilot allowing us to jump in and control the Tank ourselves, turning the tables on the clockwork gnomes. I wasn't seeing it. This is why I didn't lead raids, but delegated the responsibility to people who could read between the World of Logs lines.

"Something more closely related to deaths", Cheeseus continued with his clues.

A group of players were dead from massive flame spray coming in from the Arachnopod Destroyers. Meanwhile, massive healing had been put on to the Destroyers themselves. So much healing, in fact, that it had pushed an inconsequential Paladin into the number one healing spot.

"Healing done on the Destroyers is incredibly high," I typed back to Cheeseus, "about 64% vs. 10% on Omaric and ~1% on everyone else."

Divineseal was casting Beacon of Light on the Main Tank and spamming heals on the person driving the Destroyer, catapulting his overall healing done in an attempt to not look like the worst healer on the team. Other healers did this as a joke to see what they could inflate their numbers to. Divineseal was using it as a legitimate tactic...and failing.

"I like the deaths during his high healing area," Cheeseus concluded, "clearly his priorities are straight."

I have to admit, it was an impressive attempt to try to sate Cheeseus. Our raid leader had been complaining about Divine's numbers as long as the pants-looter had been raiding Ulduar with us. Impressive...and dumb. I wasn't even sure if I could consider this manipulation. How can one purposefully cheat if one still doesn't fundamentally understand the rules of the game? It's the sort of behavior you'd see from a player that was trying to confirm what they already believed to be true: that they were right and the rest of the world was wrong. But as players like my ex-Warrior officer Annihilation spelled out plainly,

"Divine is only bad because he thinks he is better than he really is."

Psychologists call this the Dunning-Kruger effect. It grants people an inflated assessment of their own skills, while at the same time, preventing them from understanding how truly unskilled they really are. A vicious cycle of ignorance that protects oneself from one's own incompetence, perpetuating never-ending mediocrity.

It was an all too familiar scene. Players that didn't like to take advice, that got defensive when it was suggested they didn't know what they were doing...would specifically seek out information from other skewed sources that backed up their own false claims. You seek out the "truths" that make you feel better, rather than face the fact that you may not know anything at all. It happens every day to people that have never even heard of World of Warcraft. So Divineseal sought to find ways to improve his own skewed poor healing strategies, and all it served was to point out how exploitative his techniques were. It wasn't that he didn't care -- he wanted to be a successful healer. He just didn't know that he wasn't one.

In his mind, Divineseal's job was to fulfill Cheeseus's request: stop being at the bottom of the meters.

---

I logged in and scanned for Kelden to see if he was available to chat about the Divineseal issue. Kelden whispered me first.

"Hey", he shot over to me, "Got a sec?"

"Actually I do, let's hop in vent."

The news he had was not good.